if we never get Winds of Winter

the real Song of Ice and Fire was the friends we made along the way

Dec 20, 2024

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past two decades, you probably know about the show Game of Thrones, and there’s a decent chance that you have heard about its source material, A Song of Ice and Fire, a fantasy series written by George R. R. Martin that is famously unfinished. It’s been 13 years since the last main-line book in the series, and 6 years since we last had any new material set in this world, and the fans’ goodwill towards the author has largely disappeared after years and years of disappointments and false hopes. The consensus is that The Winds of Winter, the next book in the series, is never going to come out.

2024 was a wild ride for ASoIaF fans. Hope was temporarily renewed for a while, leading to speculation that maybe this was the year we finally got a positive update on the book and perhaps even a release date. Then, a series of blog posts and comments brought us back to despair, and lots of fans that were still holding on finally gave up on the series. I’m not part of that crowd, I do still think we are going to get Winds at some point, but I thought it would be fun to do a retrospective on everything we know about the book so far and everything that went down on 2024.

Backstory.

While A Song of Ice and Fire’s success has overshadowed the rest of Martin’s work, it’s important to remember that he’s more than just this one series. Before he started ASoIaF, Martin had been mostly focused on his work for television, writing for shows like The Twilight Zone and Beauty and the Beast. He was also already working as an editor for the Wild Cards anthology series, which started in 1987 and continues to this day. His interest in TV and his other projects are part of the reason why Winds has taken so long.

A Game of Thrones was published in 1996, and it was originally intended to be the first novel in a trilogy, but things got out of hand, which is kind of a pattern with Martin. After Game, He quickly released the next two books in the series, A Clash of Kings (1998) and A Storm of Swords (2000), and by this point it had already become clear that the series was going to much longer than originally intended.

Something that happened during this time is that Martin had to completely change the timeline of the story. He was planning to have a 5 year time skip that would allow certain characters to grow and mature in between books, but he realized the time skip would not work and had to find a way to restructure many character arcs. Some of the characters that were most afflicted by this change were Sansa and Arya Stark.

He starts working on the next entry, but the book gets too big and Martin loses steam. After publishing the first three books in 2-year intervals, he starts to get slower. Martin and his publisher decide to split the book in two, separating the story by PoV characters and locations, which became A Feast for Crows (2005) and A Dance With Dragons (2011). It’s important here to point out that Dance introduced a completely new faction into the plot and several new PoV characters. These characters and plot lines were overall well received by fans, but this was the fifth book, a little late to introduce more people into the story.

By then, Martin had already given the titles for the final two books in the series: The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring. He expected Winds to be easier to write, and he already had a few chapters that were cut from Dance, so things were looking good.

Except, 2011 was also the year that the first season of Game of Thrones came out. Martin wrote one episode per season until season 4 (2014), and he was a co-executive producer. While he doesn’t have a lot of creative control over the adaptations of his work, Martin still likes to be involved because as I mentioned before, he’s always had a passion for television as a medium.

Between 2013 and 2017 he published a series of novellas that were later incorporated in Fire & Blood, a fictional history book about the Targaryen dynasty. The book is not just a compilation, but it also expands these stories. In the meantime, his Dunk and Egg novellas, which were published in between A Storm of Swords and A Dance With Dragons, were also compiled in a new book, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.

Besides all this, Martin has continued to work as an editor for Wild Cards, with 10 new volumes coming out in between 2011 and 2022. Another project he was involved with during this time was the game Elden Ring.

The timeline after the release of Dance is, essentially, a story of detours and distractions.

Preston Jacobs, a popular ASoIaF YouTuber, has a great video tracking Martin’s progress up to 2022. I’m going to talk about Preston Jacobs in a bit, but before that I recommend checking-out his video to get an idea of how much Martin has actually written, since it’s likely that not much has changed since then.

But why?

Martin calls himself a “Gardener”. He lets the story and the characters grow as they like, he doesn’t have a step-by-step outline. This is great from a narrative standpoint, most people would agree that one of the best aspects of the series is how vast the world feels, but this is also terrible if you are interested in meeting your deadlines.

I have laid out the basic timeline of the series’ publication, but now I’m going to get into why the later books in the series have been so difficult to write. The biggest reason is that Martin keeps introducing new characters and plot lines to the story, which makes it harder to connect everything. A lot of people don’t realize how much the show cut from the books, and because of that they tend to underestimate the amount of plot lines that still need to be wrapped up, so here’s a list:

Aegon’s Conquest: A boy that claims to be Aegon VI Targaryen, the legitimate heir to the Iron Throne and Daenery’s nephew, is on his way to conquer Westeros. He was going to seek out Dany to marry her and get her dragons, but he was convinced by Tyrion to turn west and take the Seven Kingdoms before his aunt. By the start of Winds, we know that Aegon has already started his campaign and his army is already gaining territory. This is the biggest cut that the show made, and it is likely going to be what causes Dany to go mad in the books.
Dornish Ambitions: Another character that was cut from the show was Arianne Martell, the princess of Dorne. Arianne is currently traveling north to meet up with Aegon, hoping to marry him and become his queen. Her cousins, the Sand Snakes, are infiltrating King's Landing with the goal of assassinating King Tommen.
Beyond the Wall: Jon is still dead, so there’s the matter of handling his resurrection and the political conflict going on at the Wall. Bran Stark just started his training under Bloodraven, who in the books is a lot more sinister.
Grand Northern Conspiracy: The other Stark boy, Rickon, is currently living on an island of cannibals. Davos Seaworth is on his way to get Rickon and bring him back to Winterfell, as per his agreement with Lord Wyman Manderly. The Northern lords are likely conspiring to put Rickon on the throne of Winterfell.
Euron’s Eldritch Horrors: Euron Greyjoy is planning a magic ritual to summon deep-sea monsters and take the Citadel. Meanwhile, he sent his brother Victarion to Meereen to arrange a marriage pact between Euron and Daenerys. Victarion is planning to marry Dany himself and use a magical horn to take control of her dragons.
The Battle of Fire: Meereen is a mess and Dany is lost in the Dothraki sea. Barristan Selmy is trying to make peace in the city, but he’s a terrible politician and there’s a big battle about to happen.
The Battle of Ice: The Rightful King Stannis Baratheon is preparing to fight the Boltons in the North.
Grand Maester Conspiracy: Sam Tarly is at the Citadel, and he has been warned by Marwyn the Mage that the maesters are conspiring against the return of dragons. Marwyn himself is on his way to Meereen to talk with Dany.
Red Wedding 2.0: Lady Stoneheart, also known as Catelyn Stark, is going on a murder spree in the riverlands. Jaime Lannister is being led to Lady Stoneheart by Brienne of Tarth, which is likely going to result in a bloody confrontation. The Freys are preparing for a wedding, and it’s likely not going to end well for them. On top of that, it seems like a Frey civil war is brewing.
The Other Lannisters: Cersei is going on trial, and this has to happen before Aegon’s arrival. Tyrion is in Meereen, and he needs to meet up with Dany eventually, which can only happen once Dany makes it back to the city. We know from George’s comments that this is only going to happen towards the end of the book.
The Stark Girls: Arya is still training in Braavos, while her sister Sansa is being taught the game of thrones by Littlefinger in the Vale. Sansa is using a secret identity, and she’s engaged to Harry Hardyng, who’s going to become the heir of the Eyrie if something happens to Robert Arryn.

I’m not even including everything. The point is that there are too many characters that need to meet up, too many big battles that need to happen, and too many different factions with their own agendas. I didn’t even mention the Others, because the way things are looking, they may not even make an appearance in Winds of Winter—there’s not enough time! Looking at the amount of plot lines that need to wrap up by the end of Winds, it’s no surprise that the book is taking so long to be finished.

The Epic Highs and Lows of 2024.

Every couple of years something happens that reignites the fandom’s hope and everyone starts freaking out and saying Winds is right around the corner. Then the book doesn’t get announced and we’re back to square one. 2024 was one of those years.

For the unaware, Martin has a website called Not a Blog where he posts about his life and his writing. Most of the speculation that went down this year is due to his posts there.

Winds copium started on March 11, when he posted a quote from William Faulkner under the title “Words of Wisdom” (which sounds similar to Winds of Winter). The post included a picture of a blue rose, which is an important symbol in ASoIaF as it’s associated with Lyanna Stark and, by extension, Jon Snow. The quote itself mentions dreams, which could be a reference to the final book in the series, A Dream of Spring.

Around this time, we started getting news about another ASoIaF TV adaptation, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms. We got some casting announcements, and Martin has been very excited about it from the beginning. On May 21, he posted a video of one of the actors getting ready for the role, and at the end of the post he says:

The show will make its debut next year… and if it does well, THE SWORN SWORD and THE MYSTERY KNIGHT will follow. By which time I hope to have finished some more Dunk & Egg stories (yes, after I finish THE WINDS OF WINTER).

Martin, of course, doesn’t have a good track record when it comes to predictions. He said Winds would come out before Game of Thrones ended, and we know how that went, but it gave people some hope to know that Martin was being so optimistic again.

He wrote another “Words of Wisdom” post on June 19, this time the blue rose was missing but the quote (by Roosevelt) was about working hard and one of the tags was “writing” so it could be seen as a good sign. On July 9, he posted about visiting the set for the new show and mentioned talks with his British publisher, though he was quick to explain that it didn’t mean anything. He clarified that when Winds is finished there will be a proper announcement, basically asking the fans not to look for hints and clues on his blog.

He also talked about visiting the World Science Fiction Convention, which was a big deal because he hasn’t been there in a while, but he would not be hosting a panel due to a series of bureaucratic complications. That didn’t stop people from expecting some sort of announcement at the convention.

The next day, on July 10, he revealed the designs for a new ASoIaF boxed set. This was very significant since the last time that the covers were re-designed was prior to the release of A Dance With Dragons, but on the other hand, it could also be seen as a sign that we should give up on Winds and consider the series finished.

Then came September 9. The day our hopes were killed. Martin opened up about some personal troubles he went through this year, he lost a very close friend, and he had a hard time writing. He said he had made some progress on both Winds and the sequel to Fire & Blood (which is not exactly good news since it means he’s not entirely focused on Winds), but neither amounted to much. Once more, he seems to have gotten distracted with his TV projects, on top of all the stress from his personal life. He also got a mild case of Covid.

It was so over.

He mentioned Winds again on October 10. Nothing new there, he just repeated that he will only write more stories for Dunk and Egg in his “copious spare time” after finishing Winds. He said something similar on October 27.

On November 19, he wrote about an upcoming adaptation of one of his non-ASoIaF stories. The only notable thing about this post is that he says he wants to write a sequel for that story, but he makes sure to add “In my copious spare time.” He didn’t mention Winds, which is odd because he always makes a point of appeasing fans by saying he’s working on it, so some people took this phrase to mean he’s already done or almost done with the book. The most likely explanation is that we already know that he's talking about when he mentions having spare time, so he just didn’t think it was necessary to include that on the post. Or he just forgot.

His recent posts haven’t mentioned his writing at all, and his latest post on December 7 was about another personal loss. On that post, he calls 2024 a “dark year.”

The Future of ASoIaF.

Some people argue in favor of splitting Winds like they did with Feast and Dance. Recently, there was a rumor going around about Martin and his publisher discussing this possibility after years of Martin saying he’s not going to split Winds, but the rumor was swiftly addressed and denied. I do think this is perhaps the best option, and the most likely outcome. It’s been too long since the last release, and Martin needs to do something to appease his publisher and his fans, and I think most people would be happy with any kind of new content.

It’s also important to consider that Winds is not the only book Martin has promised his fans. Besides Winds (and Dream), he also has plans to publish another Targaryen history book and six more Dunk and Egg novellas. Considering that the Dunk and Egg show is coming out soon, he may feel pressured to get back to work on those novellas before the adaptation runs out of source material—again.

The lack of new content is worrisome, but it hasn’t stopped HBO from announcing spin-off after spin-off. They are determined to milk the ASoIaF franchise for as long as possible, which means more distractions and pressure for Martin.

I think we are going to get a new main-line book soon. Whether it’s going to be Winds or if it’s going to be another Feast/Dance situation, I can’t say, but we do know Martin has been writing. People who aren’t keeping up with his updates are under the belief that he hasn’t written a single page in 13 years, but we have known for a while that he has hundreds of pages done. His most recent estimate was that he had 3/4 of the book finished, and mounting pressure from fans may finally force him to divide the book and publish what he has. We will have to wait and see.

George R. R. Martin is more than Winds. He’s a human being, and we shouldn’t be so harsh on him. Everyone who loves this series does it because we can see how complex and multi-layered it is, so I think we should be more understanding of Martin when he has a hard time writing. If it was so easy, anyone could do it.

On that topic…

I said I was going to talk about Preston Jacobs again, and it's time to do that. He’s an ASoIaF YouTuber, mostly known for his outlandish conspiracy theories about ASoIaF being a sci-fi post-apocalyptic story instead of fantasy, and he’s also relevant to this post because he has started writing his own version of The Winds of Winter, with the help of other fans. If you are interested, you can read the chapters on AO3 or watch his videos narrating them here. The existence of this project seems to me like just another source of pressure for Martin, and Preston Jacobs’ theories about the series and his vision for how it’s going to end are so different from my own understanding of Martin’s work that I could never take it seriously.

ASoIaF is what made me fall in love with fantasy, I read it for the first time when I was just 10 years old, and I have been eagerly waiting for the next book ever since. Talking about this series used to be depressing, but not anymore. I’ve made peace with the wait, and I think time has made me appreciate Martin’s work even more than I used to. I wouldn’t want him to deliver a rushed “product” just for the sake of the fans—he’s an artist, and I want him to be proud of his work, not to pump out mediocre books every year that are just a check-list of plot points. Quality is more important than quantity.

I do think we will get The Winds of Winter in the future, but if we never get Winds, that’s fine too. At the end of the day, Winds is not even the last book in the series, so if you can accept that A Dream of Spring is never going to come out, it may help you accept that getting Winds is not that important. I understand that this can be frustrating to some people, but it’s time to stop complaining and being miserable and just enjoy the beauty of this series. I promise there’s a lot to love about ASoIaF even without an ending.

If you are a fan of the series, what are your thoughts on The Winds of Winter? How do you feel about GRRM? What do you think about Preston Jacobs’ fanfic, do you think it’s a good idea or do you think it’s disrespectful? Let me know in the comments!

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